How Travel Will Change After COVID-19

Bottom line: It is likely that the typical mass clientele model that is profitable by volume of tourists will be replaced by a more expensive, yet personal and meaningful travel industry.

Almost everyone enjoys a solid vacation. In fact, it’s sometimes the very thing that keeps us going week after week. There’s nothing better to get you through a Monday than the knowledge that Friday, almost within your reach, is the last workday before you set off on your travels.

It doesn’t matter if that travel involves climbing a mountain or lounging on a tropical island: the excitement is the same.

But COVID-19 has seriously dampened the excitement for travel in the near future (more or less because it simply isn’t going to be possible) But it can’t have eliminated the demand to explore the world forever. Will people still have the burning desire to go on adventures, experience romance, luxury, risk, excitement, delight and all the other emotions that exotic locations tend to offer?

Seeing that cruise lines already have bookings for 2021 despite being one of the hardest hit travel industries we can make some predictions about the future of travel, both short term and long term.

First, the public sentiment for travel will have changed even after COVID-19. The very psyche of the public mind has been altered and there will certainly be hesitancy to immediately book a trip. In fact, there may be a small amount of “travel shaming” for those that are the quickest to pack a suitcase and jetset to the nearest top-10 travel destination. 

And how should you feel about travel? Is it okay to feel excited about the prospect of a holiday when it’s not a “necessity” and is a key component of the spread of viruses? Should those traveling for required business/medical/government reasons be the only ones without the burden of a guilty conscience for getting to see a new country?

Prior to COVID-19, many tour operators functioned on a mass and volume model, meaning they were able to offer great deals for excursions, events, tours, food, etc as long as they could book dozens if not hundreds of clients. This was a necessary evil that many of us simply accepted. Huge crowds became the norm, with long lines to see any of the wonders of the world. Jam-packed airport terminals, train stations, and bus stations were not just accepted, but expected in some regions of the globe, viewed as the price you must pay (in addition to the financial price) to travel.

Many have their fingers crossed that we will return to this normal, but it is extremely unlikely, at least for the foreseeable future years. Not unlikely because of any vaccine timeline, antibody test, or anything of a medical science nature, but unlikely because of the psychology of society being traumatized by this virus. 

How many years will it be before you see mass tour operators offering excursions again? Two years? Three? 

With this being the case, our next prediction can be that some will travel immediately, the intrepid among us, but demand will remain low (initially). This will result in absolute rock-bottom prices as travel companies attempt to make up for lost revenue and offer unheard of discounts to simply attract business, re-establish their reputation, and reinvigorate society with wanderlust as those first few travelers return home and post jaw dropping photos of landscapes, islands, wildlife, luxury, and romance. 

But this will not be enough. At large, the demand for travel will remain low, simply because of the psychological fear that will take years to fade, not to mention governments restricting the mass client offerings with maximum quotas and limited dates. And thus, we predict that a new travel model will become mainstream: the custom and boutique travel itineraries.

Some of us have seen this model already, but have been forced to pay a premium. It involves small tour groups, usually no larger than a dozen. The pace is generally slower, but experiences have more texture and granularity, are more memorable and authentic. Cheap thrills are swapped for cultural learning, “ah hah!” moments, and realizations about your place in the world. 

On top of this model, we will likely see custom itineraries that are “self-executed,” meaning you rent the car and drive yourself (there is no giant bus full of tourists that have no idea what highway they are on or what direction they are headed). You will have three possible restaurants handpicked by travel experts on your itinerary, but you must call and book with one of your choice (you will not simply ride in the van with your tour leader that walks you into the restaurant and seats you). Your day excursion or activity will be very different, because you will not be with a group of 30 from your home nation, rather, you may be forced to interact with locals or foreign travelers.

The silver lining is obvious in this potential shift - cheap, obnoxious, and non-authentic/heavily commercialized travel may (deservedly) die off. We may no longer see the small golden Eiffel Tower keychains at every corner of Paris for 99 cents. Beautiful tropical bays may no longer be filled with jet skis and party boats. You may be able to walk down a market street in a foreign city and not be accosted every thirty seconds with “Yes, please - have a look”

Of course, these are only predictions. Everything may return to exactly as it was after a vaccine is widely distributed and COVID-19 becomes something similar to the flu (as far as infection rates and mortality is concerned). The masses may shrug off the fear and jump right back into crowded boats, busses, trains, and planes to see Angkor Wat, the Grand Canyon, the Pyramids or the islands of the South Pacific. 

If travel demand does return to previous levels, at least we have hope that it will be more appreciated, and that we will all pack a bag and book a ticket, not with the hopes of cheap thrills and envious instagram photos, but of having a real experiences and connecting with humans somewhere else in the world.